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Detroit Lions trade TJ Hockenson to Minnesota Vikings

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T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Vikings earlier today.

T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Vikings earlier today.
Image: Getty Images

Prior to this morning, the NFL trade deadline had been a very quiet affair. Aside from Christian McCaffrey and Roquan Smith, there wasn’t much for NFL fans to get excited about. There were dozens of rumors, revolving mainly around running backs like Kareem Hunt, Cam Akers, and Nyheim Hines, but no actual moves were being made.

Then, WHAM-O! The Vikings came out of left field to make a move that had sort of flown under the radar.

Also, the Bears acquired Chase Claypool and the Dolphins acquired Bradley Chubb, but this isn’t about either of those gentlemen.

Sure, there had been rumors surrounding 2020 Pro Bowler TJ Hockenson, but the interested teams were rather unknown. The Irv Smith Jr. injury likely put the Vikings in panic mode, and they likely hurried a deal for a game-changer at tight end. Minnesota didn’t have to give up too much either. According to reports, the Vikings are only surrendering a 2023 second and a 2024 fourth while getting a 2023 fourth and a conditional 2024 fourth in return. Based on Hockenson’s potential, I’d say that’s a solid deal. Maybe slightly in Detroit’s favor, but not in a landslide.

The question now is “How will this trade impact Minnesota’s offense? Does the addition of Hockenson change their standing as Super Bowl contenders? Is the team a sure-fire bet to win the NFC North now?” I guess that’s three questions, but the answer to all three is probably a resounding “Meh.”

Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell has never been a big proponent of using tight ends in his offenses. While he served as the Rams’ offensive coordinator, Tyler Higbee’s usage was inconsistent. Now, in his first year away from the Rams, we’ve seen Higbee’s targets, receptions, and yards go up tremendously. Hell, he’s currently on pace to set new career highs in those categories. He’s not getting into the endzone as much, but I’d be willing to bet that will change soon, especially if Cooper Kupp’s ankle injury limits him in Week 9. As the offensive coordinator for Washington in 2019, O’Connell’s tight ends — Jeremy Sprinkle, Vernon Davis, and Hale Hentges — recorded 73 total targets. Sure, that’s not insane talent, but you’d think with the low-end quarterback talent in that Washington locker room that year — Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, and Colt McCoy — checkdowns to the tight end would’ve been a very popular play call for the offense. They weren’t. O’Connell has never shown an ability to get his tight ends involved.

The most involved a tight end has ever been in any O’Connell offense has been Irv Smith Jr. this season. That probably has a lot to do with the team’s offensive coordinator, Wes Phillips, however. After all, prior to serving on O’Connell’s Minnesota staff, Phillips operated as the Los Angeles Rams’ tight ends coach. Still, despite a tight end-focused offensive coordinator, Smith was averaging less than five targets per game and fewer yards per game than he managed to put up in 2020 as Minnesota’s co-starter with Kyle Rudolph. Basically, despite a better offensive head coach and what was supposed to be a more tight end-centric offense, Smith still didn’t see his usage increase by all that much in 2022.

Hockenson is more talented than Smith, but he’s still not a better receiving option than either Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. Much like Smith, it’s likely that Hockenson will operate as the team’s third option in the passing game. He could see more targets than Smith, but I wouldn’t bank on Hockenson becoming the next Mark Andrews with this move. In fact, Hockenson’s usage could remain almost exactly the same. Removing his one enormous game this year — which only happened because of injuries to Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, and DJ Chark — Hockenson averaged just over five targets, exactly three receptions, and 36 yards per game. He was Detroit’s number-two receiving option. He’ll now drop down the depth chart, but are we to expect Hockenson to put up better numbers? I don’t buy it.

Those numbers are slightly better than Smith’s and with improved quarterback play, there is a chance Hockenson could start averaging just over 50 yards per game — but don’t expect elite numbers.

Still, stats aren’t strictly where Hockenson could be an improvement. While Hockenson has never been an elite blocker (his prowess in that department, while touted in college, is still a work in progress at the NFL level), he is better than Smith. Kirk Cousins has suffered the second-most knockdowns of any NFL quarterback (33) and the fifth-most hurries (25). He’s experiencing pressure at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL (25.4 percent). Despite all that, Cousins is still near the top of the league in time to throw (T-4th in NFL; 2.5 seconds per dropback). Thus, even with slightly more time in the pocket, it’s unlikely that the Minnesota offense would become more downfield-focused.

Where Hockenson could make a huge difference is efficiency with his usage. Although Hockenson’s usage shouldn’t be monumentally higher than Smith’s, Hockenson could prove much more valuable given the reliability of his hands. In 2021, Hockenson recorded the second-lowest drop rate among qualifying tight ends (1.6 percent) and the highest contested catch rate (78.6 percent). Smith has not been good in either of those departments. I’m sure Vikings fans don’t want to revisit their loss against Philadelphia, but that image of Smith dropping a wide-open touchdown is probably still ingrained in their minds.

In 2022, Hockenson’s hands haven’t been as reliable. Through eight weeks, he’s got three drops, tied for the second-most in the NFL, and his drop rate of 10.3 percent is the highest of any tight end with at least 30 targets. That said, Hockenson has a pedigree of reliability with his hands. It’s a bad stretch, but Hockenson should start gravitating back toward his norm in that department.

Despite those drops, Hockenson still ranks fifth among tight ends with at least 30 targets in catch-in-traffic completion rate (55.6 percent). On three targets in traffic, Smith had yet to haul in a single pass in traffic. That’s where Hockenson could shine in Minnesota. In those third-and-short situations where Cousins would normally go to Jefferson on an out route or Cook/Mattison in the flat, Hockenson could excel in running quick hitches, drags, or stops just beyond the line of scrimmage. With defenses likely keying in on Jefferson and Thielen, Hockenson should have more space to operate, but even if he’s in traffic, he’s shown an ability to come away with the football.

All in all, Hockenson will (probably) not turn into an All-Pro on par with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or George Kittle in Minnesota, but for the first time in his career, he’s got a shot at reaching the playoffs and that’s all he can really ask for.



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Kanye West, Herschel Walker, Antonio Brown

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2. Antonio Brown

Image for article titled IDIOT OF THE MONTH: Morons, morons everywhere

Illustration: Getty Images

Antonio Brown went full Deshaun Watson at a hotel pool in the United Arab Emirates this past May, but news of his inappropriate shenanigans didn’t become publicly available until this month. That said, Antonio Brown acted so stupidly and responded in such an immature manner that it makes his inclusion a no-brainer even if technicalities wouldn’t normally permit such.

The former All-Pro and current rap artist was caught on camera harassing a woman while exposing his glutes, genitalia, and massive unchecked ego to several onlookers who all cheered and laughed at the woman’s obvious discomfort. After getting some heat from the public after the video emerged, Brown took to Twitter to defend himself.

How tone deaf must you be to post something like this? This isn’t about the NFL. The NFL isn’t the ones making you look like a fool right now. You’re not even associated with them. Brown has made himself a laughingstock all on his own, no partners in crime necessary.

Not only does the video not “clearly” show the woman swimming off with Brown’s trunks like he claims, but even if she was, that doesn’t give Brown an excuse to continue waving his ass and pecker at her. If she really wanted him, she would’ve come back after finally getting away. When Brown raised his erection out of the water for the entire hotel to see and shouted, “You know you want this!” at her, she would’ve come back, wouldn’t she? Instead, according to the New York Post, she immediately went to members of the hotel staff to complain about the entire incident. She was obviously uncomfortable and didn’t appreciate the gestures.

I haven’t even gotten to the fact that near the end of their encounter, Brown stole a scarf from a different vacationer and tried to put it around the woman’s face. With both Brown and his victim surrounded by water, putting a cloth over someone’s face isn’t a kind gesture, it’s a method of torture used in Guantanamo Bay, known as waterboarding. The woman immediately tried to throw it off, but Brown didn’t take kindly to the rejection and promptly threw the woman over his shoulder. That’s when she finally gets away.

Yeah, dude, you really know how to make women swoon. What an absolute buffoon.

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NFL Week 8 Powerless Ranking: Could it get any worse?

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It’s time to check in on the teams that can’t get out of their own way. We’re just about halfway through the 2022 NFL season, and it’s been unpredictable at times, but there are always a few teams we expect to disappoint their fan base. Now let’s get into the powerless ranking for Week 8.

Read more…

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Chicago Bears trade Roquan Smith to Baltimore Ravens

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Roquan Smith

Off to Baltimore
Image: Getty Images

For 30 years now, anything good that happened to the Chicago Bears was assuredly an accident. The only time they ever seemed streamlined was in the middle of the 2000s when they had a GM that hired his own coach, which was Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith. That was the only time they’ve made the playoffs in consecutive years since the fucking 90s. Still is, in fact.

Every other time, the team was some kind of swamp thing of a concoction, with coaches forced upon GMs, or vice versa, and the car crash of differing plans coming together at Halas Hall.

Sometimes it worked, as the wreckage from whatever the previously arranged marriage left over just enough pieces for the next one to cobble some bionic creature to be good. That’s what happened in 2001 when Mike Brown would sneeze and have an overtime INT just land in his hands and return it for a touchdown. That’s what happened in 2018, when the end of the John Fox what-have-ya left just enough defensive players lying around to be a dominant unit that dragged the Mitch Trubisky offense along. Neither lasted more than that one season, because they were built on the sand of expedience.

But that was always the problem. With no cohesion for decades and no clear thought from year to year, there was always a unit that was ahead of the other one, and they had to make up just enough on the deficient side to keep it all together. That’s why Rex Grossman was foisted upon you all for a Super Bowl, because the Bears had a Super Bowl-worthy defense but had to come up with something, anything, on offense. It wasn’t streamlined.

Ditto 2018, when Ryan Pace, despite himself, assembled a pretty killer defense, but then had to jam anything on offense down the chute to make it representative. Weren’t on the same timeline. One peaked, one didn’t, and then soon all was lost as Matt Nagy stared blankly on from underneath that fucking visor.

Oh don’t worry, there are a lot of angry meatballs around this town today (I mean there always are, but today it’s pointed in one direction instead of in all of them while they move to the suburbs mumbling something about taxes). They’ve never seen a true rebuild, at least not with the Bears. It’s still kind of rare in the NFL, to watch a team tear it down to the studs. The league is filled with so much generic Oreo filling that you’re never more than a couple of good draft picks and signings from 9, 10, or even 11 wins. But that’s all you’ll get, and probably only for a season, maybe two. It’s too tempting for most. Playoff berths extend time on the job, after all. This is kind of a first for the Blue and Orange.

On the surface, trading a 25-year-old linebacker like Roquan Smith, who has flashed being one of the best in the game at times, doesn’t make a lot of sense. But getting a second and fifth from the Ravens is quite a bounty, especially when you consider that Von Miller netted a second and a third last year at the deadline and he plays a much more important position. GM Ryan Poles knows that the secondary and defensive line are the far more important sections of the defense. It’s becoming clear he knows the offense will need an overhaul. When you need two receivers, two offensive linemen, and at least the same number of defensive linemen, you’re probably not tempted to spend yet another summer explaining to Roquan why you can’t pay him $20 million a year because he represents himself like a jackass. You have to pile up the draft picks and keep the cap space powder dry.

It may work. It may not. What can’t be questioned is that for the first time in a long time, if ever, the Bears are streamlined. There is a plan, one being followed from the top down. Poles still has to nail a majority of the now nine picks he has in the draft (more may come later today before the trade deadline if he feels like jettisoning more of what isn’t battened down). He doesn’t have to use all the canyon of cap space he has now, but whatever he chooses to use better be crisp. The opportunity is exciting, but we’ve seen enough go sour around these parts to check ourselves before going overboard. Yet, it’s coming though.

More importantly, the Bears just might have the most important question answered. It’s only been two weeks in a row, and there’s still more road to cover, but Justin Fields flashes being the foundational piece the Bears have simply never had. They have all the ammo now to flank him with the help he’ll need. Much like we thought at the 2021 draft, they have the best QB from it. And we think that the more Trevor Lawrence continues to resemble Wild Thing Vaughn before he got glasses every Sunday.

The Bills did this. Three straight playoff appearances and are now the best team in the conference. The Dolphins did this and now have everyone’s attention, at least when they’re not actively killing both their quarterbacks.

It isn’t pleasant, and the next 10 weeks could be a very hard watch at times. But it’s sensible. It’s clearly thought out. It’s streamlined. All the things the Bears have never been. What a world. 

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Philadelphia Phillies, Philadelphia Eagles and Philadelphia Union on fire

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Bryce Harper, Jalen Hurts and Julian Carranza have Philly rolling.

Bryce Harper, Jalen Hurts and Julian Carranza have Philly rolling.
Image: Getty Images

In one light, there probably is no better place than Philadelphia, the epicenter of North American sports right now. There might not be a place where the teams matter more to the fans and residents, which of course leads them to some very curious words and deeds at times. You have to be truly dizzy for a team to do some of the things we’ve seen from various loons clad in green or orange or red. That’s not to defend them so much as identify the root.

So sure, why shouldn’t they have a stretch of weeks that others, and probably them, dared not dream of? The Phillies are in the World Series, the Eagles are one of the maybe four good teams in the NFL and still the only one to not have lost yet, and last night the Union clinched their spot in the MLS Cup final with a rollocking 3-1 win over defending champ NYCFC.

How many other cities would a streak like this truly matter in? Sure, L.A. has had years where the Dodgers are the best team and the Lakers actually live up to their name and they got a Super Bowl even last year that none of their fans could actually afford to attend. But that’s L.A. They would have shrugged it all off if they even noticed it all if it had all gone pear-shaped.

I’ve lived here when the Hawks and Cubs put up championships in back-to-back years. The Knicks and Rangers each reached their respective finals at the same time in the spring of 94, though that gets awfully distant in the rearview mirror now as I’m not hesitant to remind fans of either. Let’s not even discuss Boston.

But like that unmentionable place, it matters to Philly. We’ve heard the noise at Citizens Bank Park this fall (I would give anything to find a gif of the Philly Phanatic hugging every fan during a rally in Game 4 against the Braves, but I can’t seem to). Even if you don’t know an Eagles fan, there’s been one in your life that hasn’t shut up since about Week 2. You get assigned one if you don’t already have one, whether you like it or not or don’t even know what a football is. Them’s the rules. Or hear this:

There aren’t that many places that can produce this kind of noise, especially after most, if not all, of these people have been screaming every night for the past three weeks or so. I wonder how many aren’t going to make it all the way through this stretch before their loved ones just have to… send them away, as it were.

I could say that some part of me gets it and is happy, because I also come from a place where sports really do matter. I could say that there’s a very tiny part of me, minuscule even, that has affection for Philly because it’s the only city on the East coast that isn’t peddling some bullshit about what it is versus what it actually is. People from there just say. “It’s fuckin’ Philly, what else do you want?” They’ll do it far too loudly, but there isn’t a wave of fuckery about how it’s some cultural or intellectual center of the world. It’s a sticky dump on a river and that’s all.

I could say all that… but fuck it. This sucks and I hate it. Which is what Philly fans really want to hear anyway.

Go Union!

Speaking of that Philly Union win, Subaru Park’s foundation was threatened as the Union crashed in three goals in 11 minutes in the second half to overcome going behind. It was capped off by this Cory Burke goal, which is just about the most signature display of what strength means in soccer. Watch him turn Justin Haak into putty around the center circle and then charge into the NYCFC box. Haak might as well have been a bug on his windshield:

That’s a capstone goal.

Does it get any better than this?

Elsewhere, while Tom Brady might be sadness incarnate these days, there’s nothing but joy watching the Packers and especially Aaron Rodgers look like roadkill in the sun these days. Brady is no less high on his own farts than Rodgers in the grand scheme, but Brady only tries to convince us of that so he can sell one of his huckster oils or whatever else. Rodgers is here every week to try and convince us he knows something we don’t simply by saying whatever has a word that he thinks sounds cool said by someone else.

It’s even better when Cris Collinsworth is on the verge of tears throughout the whole Sunday Night Football broadcast, fearing his latest three-hour Packers ass-kissing seminar won’t be enough to save them. First he tried to defend Quay Walker after he punched an opposing coach, then made sure to mention some Packers equivalent to whatever Bills subject was the discussion at the time. I could seriously huff all of this if we could find a way to aerate it.

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Scariest athletes of all time

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Image for article titled Just in time for Halloween, these are the scariest athletes of all time

Image: Getty Images

Here’s a direct quote from Charles Haley. It was used in an America’s Game documentary, produced by NFL Films. It was said at practice to then Cowboys’ quarterback Troy Aikman.

“Troy if I hit yo muthafuckin ass, and rub my dick up on you, and call you my bitch.”

That’s Haley in a moment that appeared to be him joking. He was one of the great defense players of his era, and also a true loose cannon. His antics are why after two Super Bowls with the San Francisco 49ers he ended up with the Dallas Cowboys. Dan Le Batard once asked Steve Young if Haley had urinated on an assistant coach’s desk. Through laughter, Young responded, “the other end.”

Haley was a playmaker who was a key contributor on championship teams. However, Haley said himself that there could only be one alpha dog on a team. And whether it was Dana Stubblefield, Tim Harris, or whomever, Haley did what he deemed necessary to let them know that the role belonged to him.

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Sports-related Halloween costumes we’d like to see

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Image for article titled Last-minute Halloween costumes for the sports fan

Illustration: Getty Images

This is another duo costume concept, but Ciara and Russ costumes are played out. You’ll just need to rent your own hayride, do high knees around the neighborhood, and bring along a physical trainer to help you stretch. Once you’re done with the exertion that comes from being Russell Wilson all night, a fanny pack velcroed to the Broncos uniform is stuffed with ingredients including pepperoni, salami, black forest ham, banana peppers, yellow mustard, mayo, provolone cheese, bacon, and Italian Herbs and Cheese bread to make your very own Dangerwich.

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Los Angeles Lakers finally win game, defeating Denver Nuggets

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Okay, LeBron. We see you.

Okay, LeBron. We see you.
Image: Getty Images

We, the American people, have had a lot of fun at the Los Angeles Lakers’ expense for most of 2022. LeBron James missed significant time early last season, and Anthony Davis missed the majority of the 2021-22 season. However, it became clear in January, when both of them were on the court around the time of the All-Star break, that the Lakers would not be a team of any importance come postseason time.

Then they missed the postseason entirely. Russell Westbrook got benched in the fourth quarter and within hours of the game’s conclusion it was leaked that the move had the full support of management. Kurt Rambis was delivering messages to the coaching staff, and Westbrook was getting booed by the home crowd when he took jump shots.

The NBA’s crown jewel franchise looked inept, and somehow it got worse this season. A proper trade for Westbrook’s expiring contract was not found. They got rid of most of their role players and then brought in Patrick Beverley, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Thomas Bryant — who hasn’t played yet this season due to injury — and hoped that a healthy Kendrick Nunn and a more experienced Austin Reaves could contribute.

Nothing worked early this season, and the Lakers were a giant stink bomb. The worst team in the league, starting 2022-23 at 0-5. Westbrook dominated the news cycle with his brick late in a close loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, and constant speculations of what his role would be while he’s still on the roster. Also, Anthony Davis is trying his best to play through a back injury, possibly growing tired of the nicknames he’s getting for constantly missing games.

There was legitimate concern for when the Lakers would get their first win, with no team under .500 on their schedule until Nov. 11. And then last night, pride took over against the Denver Nuggets and their two-time MVP Nikola Jokić.

Somehow, the terrible 3-point shooting Lakers made 43.3 percent of their shots from behind the arc. Matt Ryan may have been on the bench in Indianapolis, but in Los Angeles Matt Ryan helped get the Lakers the lead late in the third quarter with a big triple. In 12 big minutes Ryan, who spent last season mostly with the Grand Rapids Gold and Maine Celtics of the G-League, went 2-4 from three.

It was a true team effort from the Lakers to end their embarrassing start to the season. Austin Reaves was +15 in 27 minutes on the floor and scored some of the biggest baskets of the game late in the third and early in the fourth quarter. Lonnie Walker IV scored 18 points. Troy Brown Jr. got the start and went 4-8 from the field in 26 minutes and grabbed six rebounds.

When it came time for the Lakers to put the Nuggets away, Davis looked like the star who was supposed to be worth trading all of that draft capital to the New Orleans Pelicans to get. He avoided the 3-point line, and got his mid-range jumper cooking with some late buckets to ensure that 121-110 victory.

Perhaps the best sight of the game was Westbrook interacting with the Crypto.com crowd that has been hard on him for much of 2022. He came off of the bench and tallied 18 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists with only three turnovers, also went 2-4 from the 3-point line. One clip went viral late in the third quarter of the Crowd responding to Westbrook and giving the team a standing ovation.

Westbrook has taken a lot of heat just for being on this team. The Lakers gave up a lot to acquire him, and that’s not his fault. Yes, he hasn’t played at an all-star level, but he only did that for half of a season with the Washington Wizards in 2020-21. The Lakers had to know that they weren’t getting the MVP version of him. Still, the brunt of the blame for the Lakers’ failures fell on him, just like it did when he played for the Oklahoma City Thunder because Westbrook’s style — on and off the court — is so forceful he always commands attention.

No win is heartwarming when a team of veteran players improves to 1-5, but the Lakers at least showed that they are capable of taking a game from one of the better teams in the NBA when it’s hanging in the balance.

If they lose two more in a row the jokes will return, but for one night the Lakers got to feel good about themselves. It’s a shame that it has gotten to this point, but maybe it’s the moment they needed to turn this season around. 

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Toronto Maple Leafs have no bottom

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Rough times in Toronto.

Rough times in Toronto.
Photo: Getty Images

I am as guilty as anyone else of turning the NHL into “How The Maple Leafs Turn.”You spend enough time commenting on how everyone’s always commenting on the Leafs, and well, you’re then part of the problem. But every time the Leafs do something, it’s generally causing some sort of ripple given their outsized relevance to the league.

And what they’re doing now is sending everyone in the GTA into hysterics once again, even though it’s October. That “October” part may sound ridiculous, and in some ways it is, but the way the NHL and its playoff system works is that you’d better be in a playoff spot in the next few weeks or it gets awfully tricky to elbow your way in from the outside. With the Bruins not having any fall-off so far from their usual high standard, and the Sabres and Wings looking at least spikier than they did last season, the Atlantic Division is not a place you want to be crawling back from the outer rim in.

So the Leafs just had a Western swing in which they drew an 0-fer. Lost in Vegas. Lost in San Jose. Lost the SoCal back-to-back. They’ve played 10 games, more than all but two teams in the East. And going by points-percentage, they’re on the ass-end of the division and only have Columbus beat in the conference. Not exactly to the standard that Leafs Nation demands, is it? 4-4-2 is not a pace that’s going to get them anywhere, obviously.

The Leafs issues were obvious before the season started. One, they were counting on Matt Murray to not just be good, but to be able to stand up for more than 11 consecutive minutes. This is Matt Murray we’re talking about, so naturally he’s only played one game so far this season and is still out for some time yet. This is what the Leafs signed up for by choosing Murray to be their guy. And that choice and the subsequent and utterly predictable injury absence is why they had to turn some starts over to Eric Kallgren, who is not an NHL goalie. He’s been crushed in all three of his starts, all losses (though two in OT). Normal backup Ilya Samsonov has been fine to good, but he obviously can’t play every game.

The other problem, and it’s been the problem for the Leafs for years now, is that their bottom six just isn’t good. It’s hard for it to be given all the money tied up in the top six, but this is acute. David Kampf, Nic Robertson, Calle Järnkrok, Zach Aston-Reese, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel are all running sub-50 percent Corsi ratings and expected goals shares.

Now to be fair to these guys, that is sort of the job on the Leafs’ bottom six forwards. The offensive zone starts mostly go to the tricked out top two lines to score, and the bottom six has to shovel the shit. But someone here has to turn the ice over, and no one is. This is where Kyle “Rivers” Dubas has truly failed the Leafs, in that with the sporadic draft picks he’s had he hasn’t found anyone who can fill out the bottom six roles for minimum salaries that can buy them more room from what they’re spending on their biggest toys.

Some of the Leafs’ problems weren’t all that foreseeable, though. The main one being that John Tavares’ line has been woeful defensively. Yes, Tavares is leading the team in scoring, though seven of his 10 points have come on the power-play. At even-strength, even though Tavares’ line starts 62 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone, his attempts-share and expected goals share is under water. Tavares’ individual metrics — expected goals, attempts per game, and scoring chances per game — are all the lowest they’ve been since he arrived in Toronto. He hasn’t scored at even strength yet this year.

Another problem, though one that will be quickly solved, is that Auston Matthews can’t drop a puck onto a public park at the moment. Matthews is only shooting 6 percent, some 10 points below his career average. The good news is that he’s averaging the highest mark in his career in shots, chances, and expected goals per game of his career, so there almost certainly will be an explosion of goals very soon. Had he hit just his career mark in shooting percentage, he’d have three or four more goals already, which probably would have resulted in two or three more points for the Leafs somewhere.

The penalty kill is another area of concern, though how that will go is a little hard to tell. The actual structure of the PK is fine, as the Leafs are 4th in the league in expected-goals against while a man short. But they also have the fourth worst save percentage while on the kill, which is the biggest reason why they have the 23rd-ranked penalty kill. Will Murray’s return guarantee that will get better? That’s dicey.

The Leafs may be hoping a return home will solve most of everything, but that’s dicey as well. In November, they’ll see the Penguins three times, the Devils twice, the Bruins, the Canes, the Knights, Sabres, and Wings. None of those teams are pushovers, and even if the Leafs do well, how much ground will they make up? Basically for the entirety of the cap era, 75 percent of the teams that are in playoff spots at Thanksgiving stay there. You can come in from the cold, but given the depth of the Atlantic, the Leafs aren’t going to want to have to blaze through the last two months of the season, say, while playing most of their games in a division where everyone is at least serviceable. There are no easy nights.

Still, Murray, when he returns, is an improvement on Kallgren, whatever he might actually be. Matthews is going to score a ton of goals one day soon. While fingers are always pointed at the defense, and it might not have a Makar or Josi, it’s mostly been good. They need to get Justin Holl pointed in the right way or find a replacement, but having one defective cog out of six isn’t the worst place to be. Things will turn around.

Probably in time for them to lose in the first round again. That’s where the real fun is. 

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