Prior to the start of the 2021 season, Dodgers’ outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger was considered one of the best baseball players on planet Earth. In his three full seasons with LA prior to 2021, he’d won NL Rookie of the Year, an NL MVP, and had smashed 111 home runs. 2020 wasn’t the kindest season to Bellinger, but he did still record a 112 OPS-plus, and it was a 60-game season, you know? Nothing felt right that year. We just pushed any poor play from that season to the side and hoped it would subside when normal baseball picked back up in 2021. However, things only got worse from there.

In 239 regular season games since then, Bellinger has .193/.256/.355, good for a .611 OPS or 64 OPS-plus. He’s remained relevant on the Dodgers due to his solid defense, but his days of offensive prowess are seemingly far behind him. That’s why it came as no surprise when Los Angeles non-tendered its once beloved child, making Bellinger a free agent for the first time in his career.

Bellinger was approaching his final year of arbitration in 2023 and was set to make between $18 and $20 million. That price for someone who’s played at below-replacement-level at the plate over the last two seasons is obviously a very hefty price, one the Dodgers could afford to pay — lord knows they have enough money to make a move like that and still win 100 games next season — but not worth it in their eyes.

That said, I find it hard to believe L.A. will let him walk away quietly. Despite having three of their top-five prospects and four of their top-ten capable of playing the outfield, plus James Outman, the Dodgers have hung on to Bellinger tightly, playing him in 144 games in 2022 despite his subpar bat. Their only suitable center field replacements at the moment are utility man Chris Taylor, Trayce Thompson, and maybe Mookie Betts, none of whom play center field at the level Bellinger does. There are also free agents like Brandon Nimmo and Kevin Kiermaier, but Nimmo is expensive and not a great defender. In contrast, Kiermaier is just Bellinger with a slightly better average, less power, and more base-stealing prowess. The Dodgers value Bellinger’s defense immensely, and based on the initial reaction we’ve seen from other teams, fanbases, and executives, there’s still belief that Belli could turn his hitting career around, hokey pokey-style.

Even though Los Angeles doesn’t want to pay Bellinger the money he was set to earn, the Dodgers could still outbid any team in the market for him. I doubt anyone would be willing to pay that price given Bellinger’s production, or lack thereof, over the last two seasons, so he could return to Chavez Ravine.

The Dodgers are on track to put in a lot of work this offseason, primarily with their starting rotation and bullpen — which is still looking for a legitimate closing option should Blake Treinen not return to his former glory next year. With that in mind, Bellinger’s arbitration price was too hefty a price to bear. Will some team overpay in the hopes of capturing Bellinger’s 2019 lightning in a bottle? Maybe, but if not, the Dodgers should be the most likely candidate to sign the left-handed bat. He’s already well-respected in the clubhouse and fills a dire need defensively.

The term five-tool player gets tossed around a lot in baseball. Anybody with that moniker will likely have a good shot at winning an MVP Award at some point in their career. We’re not looking at those players. We’re looking for a two-tool player at most, someone who can hit for average and power, but can’t do anything else. Furthermore, I will not be taking designated hitters into account for this. Sure, they’re the most obvious answers, but it’s literally their job to be good at hitting and nothing else. I’m not going to reward someone simply for doing their job. No sir-ee. I’m a capitalist.

In order to qualify for this award, the player in question must have accrued negative value as a baserunner, fielder, and have below-average arm strength, while maintaining an OPS-plus of 100 or better. They must also have played at least two-thirds of their games in the field. Anything less will result in immediate disqualification.

This year’s winner is Juan Soto!

In 2022, Soto earned -1 runs as a baserunner, -2 runs as a fielder, and his average throw from right field clocked in at an astonishingly low 85.8 miles per hour. He did all this while recording a 149 OPS-plus, the third-highest of anyone who recorded negative runs as a baserunner and fielder. The two that ranked ahead of Soto were Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman. However, Trout was well above league average in terms of arm strength, averaging 90.2 miles per hour on his throws from center field, ranking 57th in all of baseball. The average throw speed from a center fielder in 2022 was 90.0 miles per hour, according to BaseballSavant. While Freeman had a lower average MPH on his throws (80.8), he was also doing so from first base. The average MPH from first basemen in 2022 was 78.2, meaning Freeman actually had the sixth-strongest arm of all first basemen this year. The same can’t be said for Soto.

Right field is typically where you play your outfielder with the strongest arm, due to the throw to third base. The metrics back this up. The average throw from left field was 87.3 mph, center: 90.0 mph, and right: 90.5 mph. Of all right fielders with at least 100 throws in 2022, Soto ranked 40th of 44 in arm strength, meaning he wasn’t a good baserunner, fielder (contrary to what his Gold Glove finalist distinction would tell you), and had a well-below-average arm. But hey, the man is a monster at the plate, and that’s all the Padres really need out of him.

Other people who were in consideration for this award were Tampa Bay’s Yandy Díaz (143 OPS-plus, -1 baserunning runs, -13 fielding runs, ranked 50th of 53 in third baseman arm strength), San Francisco’s Joc Pederson (144 OPS-plus, -2 baserunning runs, -15 fielding runs, ranked 30th of 40 in left fielder arm strength), and Texas’ Nathaniel Lowe (141 OPS-plus, -4 baserunning runs, -9 fielding runs, but ranked eighth of 55 in first baseman arm strength).

You smell that?

It’s coming from the Los Angeles area. And it stinks.

When the American League MVP voting results were released on Thursday, something smelled awfully bad.

Sure, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge easily beat defending AL MVP Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels. The Bronx Bomber received 28 of the 30 first-place votes.

That wasn’t the issue.

For sure, Judge — who batted .311 with 62 HRs and 131 RBI — didn’t have to win the award unanimously for it to be legit, on the up and up.

The red flag came from the two first-place votes he didn’t get. Both came from L.A.-based writers who obviously cover the Angels more than the Yankees.

Sam Blum from The Athletic copped to voting for Ohtani. And reportedly, the other Ohanti vote came from Greg Beacham from the AP.

There’s no need for name-calling. Though, if we went that route, Beavis and Butthead might fit.

It was hard to look at this any other way than the two writers were probably homers, voting for the player they cover and see the most.

For sure, Ohtani had a case, but…

It would be one thing if there were a few votes for Ohtani, the dual threat, and they were sprinkled all over the country.

But this was a clear case that Judge had put on a historic 2022 season, one for the ages. He led the league in almost every offensive category.

On the other hand, Ohtani led a sideshow. His team finished 16 games under .500 and 33 games out of first place. To win the MVP off of that kind of season, you would have had to have had historic seasons both from the mound and at the plate.

The problem with the Ohtani vote is that he’s NOT the best hitter in the game and NOT the best pitcher in the game.

If he was the best pitcher and won the AL Cy Young over Justin Verlander, and had the same offensive output, the case would be stronger for him.

This notion that because he pitches and hits he should be the MVP every season because no one has done this in the game since Babe Ruth walked the Earth is flawed.

It should simply be based on the season a player had that particular season. Period.

And it’s also hard to believe that winning shouldn’t play a factor in a player being the MVP. It’s about winning and not just compiling stats.

Plus, let’s be honest, Ohtani didn’t have a meaningful at-bat or a pressure-packed pitch since June after his team lost 12 games in a row and got their manager, Joe Maddon, fired.

For sure, Ohtani had a better year in 2022 than he had in 2021 when he won the AL MVP, especially in the pitching department. The only issue is that Judge put on a historic season and we watched him set the AL home run record in a single season. His 62 bombs finally passed the mark of 61 that was held by Roger Maris back in 1961.

It was amazing to watch.

And normally, baseball writers are great when it comes to honoring the most deserving players with their votes. This time was questionable.

In 2012, there was a debate. Writers wrestled with who should be the AL MVP. There was a solid base that believed that the Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera should win the award. It was mostly the old guard of writers who still held mad respect for a player winning the Triple Crown. That season, Miggy led the league in batting average, HRs, and RBI.

But Mike Trout put together a magical season that the analytic people were crazy about. He led the league in war at 10.5. The younger, newer writers tried to discount the idea of RBI and how it wasn’t more important than on-base percentage and steals.

In the end, old school beat new school and Cabrera was voted MVP by the BBWAA.

It’s OK for writers to get it wrong. For sure, it’s not an exact science. The only problem this time around is that the two writers who got it wrong both work in the L.A. area.

Yes, it felt like home cooking. Except this time, it reeked.

Mike Trout missed 43 games this season, most of which were due to injury. Whether it was a rare back condition or rib cage inflammation, the three-time MVP was forced to miss a considerable amount of time in 2022. Still, despite missing all that time, Trout was undoubtedly a top-five player in the American League. He quietly hit 40 home runs — second in the American League — and 70 extra-base hits — tied for third. The AL MVP voters would have you think differently though.

In 2022, Trout finished eighth in AL MVP voting, marking the lowest he’s ever finished for the award in a season where he played enough games to qualify. In fact, for any season where the star outfielder qualified for the award, this was the first time that he failed to finish top 5 in the AL MVP vote. In 2017, when Trout played in just 114 games, and on a per-plate appearance basis, recorded fewer home runs, fewer RBI, fewer hits, a lower slugging percentage, and fewer extra-base hits, he finished fourth.

Now, there are factors that play into this. For one, Ohtani wasn’t around in 2017. His rookie season was 2018, and his breakout season wasn’t until 2021. Trout didn’t have to compete with a two-way phenom five years ago. He also didn’t have to compete with someone who hit 62 home runs. That’s just impossible. So, I’m not saying that Trout should’ve won the award or anything like that, but I understand that the competition in 2022 is much tougher than it was in 2017. That said, the 10-time All-Star still deserved to finish in fifth place.

This obviously wasn’t Trout’s best season. The N.J. native’s walk rate dropped significantly from his last full season in 2019, and his strikeout rate has risen substantially since then as well. Still, this was Trout’s best season in terms of raw power. His home run rate in 2022 (eight percent) was the highest of his career. His extra-base hit percentage (15.98 percent) was the highest of his career. His slugging percentage (.630) was the second-highest of his career. All in all, there’s no denying that 2022 was one of Trout’s best seasons from a raw power standpoint, and by every metric in that category, the former Rookie of the Year was a top-five, maybe even top-three, player in the American League. So, where could the voters have determined Trout unworthy of top-five recognition?

The only logical explanation would be that Trout’s total numbers don’t come anywhere close to those of the people that finished above him. However, that’s not true either. While, among the seven people to finish ahead of him in AL MVP voting, Trout ranks last in hits (124). Ummm…oh, that’s it. Trout didn’t finish dead last in any other category, even the cumulative ones like WAR (6.3 — fifth among the eight who finished above him in MVP voting), walks (54 — sixth), RBI (80 – fifth, and while you might think that’s due to his spot in the Angels’ lineup, he spent 428 of his at-bats this season hitting out of the 2-hole, which isn’t as prime an RBI spot as the 5 or 6-holes, which is where Cleveland’s Andrés Giménez spent most of his time).

The only place where the Millville Miracle really failed to meet the standards of his AL MVP peers was the stolen base category. Trout only had one in 2022. In fairness, his stolen base numbers have dropped drastically from where they were earlier in his career. However, how much did Trout’s lack of stolen bases actually hurt his team’s chances of scoring? Trout’s run-scoring percentage was 31 percent in 2022 — meaning 31 percent of the time, when he reached base, he scored. Considering L.A. ranked 15th in team slugging percentage this season, we can assume that the Angels weren’t just hitting extremely well behind Trout and knocking him in easily without their star having to do much work. Sure, he may have had slightly more help than Rodríguez, Ramírez, or Giménez (17th and 23rd in MLB, respectively), but Judge, Alvarez, and Altuve each had better teammates hitting behind them. Let’s see how Trout stacks up:

2022 Run Scoring Percentage:

• Altuve: 36 percent
• Rodríguez: 34 percent
• Trout: 31 percent
• Judge: 31 percent
• Alvarez: 30 percent
• Ramírez: 29 percent
• Ohtani: 28 percent
• Giménez: 26 percent

Huh, it’s almost like being a prolific base stealer only marginally helps your team score runs. Basically, Trout’s lack of base-stealing prowess shouldn’t affect his value in the eyes of MVP voters. When push comes to shove, Trout can hustle. Among players with at least 100 competitive sprints in 2022, Trout ranked 15th in average sprint speed (29.4 feet per second). The only player ahead of him in that category who also finished ahead of him in MVP voting was Rodríguez (29.8 — sixth in MLB). That basepath speed is highly effective regardless of the ability to steal bases and that’s why Trout came around to score so often, despite not stealing bases as often as his counterparts.

Yes, there’s going to be some bias in the voting based on a player’s team’s success. I don’t think that’s a bad thing either. The Angels weren’t good, whereas every other team represented among these eight players reached the playoffs. However, there’s no denying that Trout was a top-five player in the American League this year, and I wish he’d be recognized as such. I believe much of this result has come from voter fatigue. Voters were tired of putting Trout’s name at the top and were looking for any reason to leave him out of their top five, and him missing 43 games was reason enough. It’s a shame.

It’s the penultimate week of college football’s regular season, and I’ll give you four guesses as to which conference has the most ranked teams. I’d like to thank SEC fans for their quick response, but nope, it’s not them. Big Ten fans aren’t even chiming in because one of their two divisions doesn’t have a single team in the Top 25. It’s admirable that the Big 12 applied, while the ACC’s texts went not only unreturned but also unread.

If you’ve been counting, you’d know there’s only one conference left in the Power Five, and it’s the Pac-12. With half of its dozen teams currently ranked, it has the most ranked teams, and a level of football that has gone overlooked all season. That’s most likely because some games start at 11 pm. EST time, and a majority of college football fans are tired, drunk, or both by that time.

That’s what makes the USC-UCLA game so crucial. If the Trojans drop another one, and the conference champion has two losses, nothing any Pac-12 program did this season will have cachet. It’ll just be another, “I told you (conference X) was trash,” and everybody’s most frustrating sports argument outside of LeBron versus Jordan will have legs once again.

I’ve been closely following the resurgent (and supposedly resurgent) teams all season for the now 86’d Marty McFly Rankings. I’ve seen as much Caleb Williams as Hendon Hooker. If USC wins out, with the only loss on the road against currently No. 10 Utah by the margin of a two-point conversion because the Utes didn’t want to go to OT, they deserve to be in the College Football Playoff.

Even though Paul Finebaum emits smugness at the same rate that L.A. emits smog, I have a tremendous amount invested in the Volunteers. (When your girlfriend is a UT grad, and your team was one of the supposedly resurgent, a distraction/rooting interest is what gets you through the season.)

Still, if the college football gods deem it so, and Tennessee and the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State are left out peering in because the Big Ten winner, Georgia, and TCU are perfect, and Pac-12 champion USC’s only blemish is a one-point loss to a top 10 team, so be it.

If it feels like the committee has biases, it’s because they do. They’re human. Once a stance is agreed upon in that room, I imagine it’s hard to get them to waiver because no one likes to admit they’re wrong. And I think conference champions that look like conference champions in one of the best, albeit top-heavy, power five conferences in the country matter.

Despite Oregon’s credentials this century, USC is the biggest brand on the West Coast, with a history of their best being more than good enough against the sport’s blue bloods. It’s conceivable that they belong because we’ve seen it semi-recently.

The same goes for the coach. Lincoln Riley produces Heisman Trophy winners and CFP appearances. Add in a win over Chip Kelly this weekend, a W over a ranked Notre Dame team next week, and a victory in either a rematch with Utah or a showdown with Oregon in the conference title game, and the recency bias we want to say doesn’t exist in the committee will push USC over the top, if the quality of those wins does not.

Throwing your eggs in USC and Riley’s basket is safer than endorsing Josh Heupel because he’s never made them look stupid. I’m not saying Heupel will; it’s just the fear of the unknown, no conference title, and the Georgia game that makes the Vols a riskier proposition.

This pro-USC logic could apply to Clemson if the Tigers didn’t just get waxed by the Golden Domers, played in a better conference, and most importantly had a transcendent quarterback. Williams and Riley absolutely hold sway in a selection room that’s probably filled with the same shitty pastries and refreshments we’re all accustomed to.

Gary goes for the danishes and lemonade, Beth prefers a croissant and coffee, and Paul hovers over the beignets and tells you that they’re the best breakfast ever, and you’re stupid if you think otherwise. Yet, there are catered options that everyone can agree on, and it’s probably a fucking omelet station, but that’s beside the point.

The CFP panel loves Alabama because the Tide regularly checks the boxes they value and consistently makes them look smart. A 12-1 USC team wouldn’t be able to leave the interview room without at least three uncomfortable Bobs-in-Office Space advances.

Once the pool of teams extends to 12, fans will be able to poke holes in any line of reasoning the panel presents with so much ease it’ll lead to literal meltdowns on ESPN. Right now, the criteria are barely finite enough to justify a top four.

And with a win at the Rose Bowl on Saturday night, the Trojans’ résumé will be one step closer to the CFP stamp of approval.

It’s hard to describe why there’s angst around Aaron Long. Does the United States men’s national team have better center backs? Yes. Has he taken the spot of more deserving players? Yeah, but that’s more up for debate. If you’re basing personnel decisions on trust with USMNT head coach Gregg Berhalter, Long may be at the front of the line. If not for rupturing his Achilles tendon in May 2021, Long’s rise from Major League Soccer starter to national-team regular would’ve been more linear.

When Long returned from injury in February, he played a few games before being called up to the national team for the final window of World Cup Qualifiers against Mexico, Panama, and Costa Rica. People forget that before his injury, Long was the leader in minutes played for the national team under Berhalter. There was a pandemic that scattered American talent all over the globe, but Long was already a trusted body by Berhalter long before crunch time of picking a 26-man roster to bring to Qatar was announced. If Long was in form, he was a deceivingly easy choice to be selected for the World Cup.

Long has never played professional soccer outside of America. His only first-team appearances for MLS clubs have come since 2017 for the New York Red Bulls after failed attempts to break into the squads in Portland and Seattle. His presence has never been seen as big and menacing, yet he’s never made a ton of mistakes. It’s fair to say we’ve never seen Long face the level of competition he’ll tussle with while in Qatar. Berhalter has put plenty of stock into Long. If you think he’s not going to significantly contribute at the World Cup, you’re mistaken. It’s not a matter if he plays, it’s how much.

Fellow MLSer Walker Zimmerman has locked down one of the two starting spots for the USMNT in Qatar. I don’t see a way that doesn’t happen. As for the other central defensive spot, the options for Berhalter are Long, Tim Ream, and Cameron Carter-Vickers. Flip a three-sided coin to determine the other choice, with Carter-Vickers likely having the longest odds of the three. Long has the inside track, having consistently played for the Yanks in 2022, while Ream hasn’t had many recent call-ups. The opportunities Ream has had over the last 18 months haven’t gone well.

The late push to start Ream over long comes down to a few factors. First and foremost is experience against similar competition. Ream captains Fulham and was huge in their efforts to be promoted to the Premier League last year. Ream is 35, but has years against the United Kingdom’s top talent. That’s vital when England and Wales are also in Group B. The likely starter for the USMNT at left back is Antonee Robinson, who plays at Fulham. Why wouldn’t Berhalter take advantage of that familiarity?

The big reason to start Long comes from Berhalter’s system. An underrated part of sports is how well every player knows a coach’s system. Long has been a constant for the USMNT. He’s been in more tough situations for the Americans than almost any other defender and has a large advantage over Ream in that capacity. With barely more than a week of time together training before facing Wales on Monday, any acclimation to the way Berhalter likes to prepare his team would take no time for Long. Despite an experience edge for Ream, the specificity of playing at the highest level has to be questioned. My call would be starting Ream anyway, but Long will get his shot to prove he’s not just a propped-up MLS project.

Has anyone done more to improve his stock with the United States men’s national team over the last 18 months than Walker Zimmerman? There’s no one clearly above him. The Nashville SC stalwart was in and out of the Yanks’ lineup for years before asserting himself as the captain of the 2021 Gold Cup squad. Since helping lift the trophy in Las Vegas last summer, he’s been an indispensable part of the team.

As it turns out, Zimmerman’s contributions have stabilized a weak spot for the USMNT. While I do believe the least options exist for the team in defensive midfield, center back hasn’t been too far behind. Injuries to Miles Robinson and Chris Richards, alongside the exile of John Brooks, would’ve been felt much harder if not for Zimmerman being a constant as one half of the starting pair that’s the last line of defense. Turns out that as solid as Zimmerman is on the pitch, he might be even better off of it, as evidenced by this Washington Post feature. 

After Christian Pulisic and Tyler Adams, there might not be a bigger lock to start in Qatar than Zimmerman. Of the American-based players picked to the 26-man roster, he was the easiest to predict. He’s the seamless combination of the right and easy move for the team. He’s menacing on the field and has a unique ability to lead at the club and international levels. Nothing about Zimmerman’s game is pretty. He’ll do the grunt work while others get the glory by scoring goals. Yet, if the USMNT wins a knockout game in Qatar, it’s not likely to happen without Zimmerman’s contributions.

“Excited to test myself against anyone,” Zimmerman told Deadspin after the World Cup roster was revealed on Nov. 8. “It’s an amazing opportunity to perform on the biggest stage and it’s something I feel like I’ve always been made for and destined to be a part of. I’m just looking forward to proving that.”

The biggest weakness for Zimmerman will be his lack of a consistent partner in the back. An underrated part of soccer is having a consistent pairing in front of the goalkeeper. While Zimmerman has had one of the two spots locked down for a majority of World Cup qualifying, beside him have been Robinson, Brooks, Richards, Sam Vines, Mark McKenzie, and Aaron Long. That’s not exactly ideal consistency. And early reports have shown Tim Ream getting an early lead to start in Qatar. While that might be best for the USMNT overall, with Antonee Robinson being the likely starter at left back, quickly building chemistry with Zimmerman will be an uphill battle.

The left side being occupied by Fulham teammates, ones that helped the team win promotion to the Premier League last season, is a phenomenal choice should Berhalter go forward with it. Ream and Zimmerman play a similar style where both are likely to fail or succeed against the same opponents. Both are great in the air and don’t mind staying back to defend, even if everyone else is pushing forward for a goal. The exception to that would be on set pieces, when it’s typical for taller center backs to try and win headers.

If it sounds like Zimmerman has a lot of pressure on him in the World Cup, it’s because he does. It’s also because Berhalter has shown no hesitation in giving him responsibility. He’s been the face of Nashville SC since the club entered Major League Soccer and now, he’s one of the can’t-miss faces of the USMNT.

“It’s funny because there’s the whole narrative because of how young this team is, that (at age) 29, you’re a veteran,” Zimmerman said. “(I’m) 29? I’m a center back. I’m trying to make more than one World Cup. I’m at a really good age right now, sure. But I don’t think we’re near being done.”

That mindset is why Zimmerman has become a leader for his club and country. Should the USA not win a game in Qatar, his sturdy place in the team will absolutely come into question. If Zimmerman holds up to expectations, he’ll have an inside track to the dream he mentioned above, starting a World Cup on home soil in 2026. But first comes beating Wales on Monday.